What makes this method useless is the increase in power with the addition of the each new variable (10, then 10 squared, then cubed and so on). You might think that we should give up at this point, but not so. Accuracy is now completely out the window and we still haven’t got to £1. Second we now have 10 quadrupled (10,000) locations, with only 5 results per location. First we can no longer visualise the result, and have to rely on mathematical expression. The margion of error now is ☑4% and therefore we will have much less confidence in the results.Īdding a fourth variable has two dreadful effects. Even worse we now have 10 cubed (1,000) locations for our 50,000 historical results which is only 50 per location. Once again we have made a little progress towards £1, but still not enough.
It can be thought of as the distorted layers of an onion where each layer represents a specific return on investment.
This time we can only visualise the three way relationship with a three dimensional object. So now we need to add a third variable, say the odds of the favourite. A good and simple start is to look at just one variable lets say the number of horses. Ten years worth would give us data on 50,000 races. In order to study these variables we would need to have at our back a large number of historical racing results that include information about the variables. The variables in horse racing include the number of horses, the distance, the odds, the historical performance of both horse and rider, the weather, the condition of the ground and many more. Variables interact and the more variables there are the more complex those interactions. Horse racing is like the weather, in that it has a large number of variables, making it difficult to make predictions. But how do you try to make that distinction? It’s a bit like picking the best stocks and shares to buy. The only way to get around this is to avoid betting on races that are likely to give you the least return and concentrate on those that are likely to give you the best return. This means that if you put £1 on 5,000 races in a year, you would spend £5,000 and get about £4,250 back, hardly satisfactory. Bookmakers set the odds for races so that they can top-slice a profit, usually around 15%. The first thing you notice is that you don’t make a profit, and the reason for this is straightforward. Imagine too that you want to gamble on the horses, and to keep things simple you will just put a small bet, say £1 to win on the favourite of every flat race in the UK (that’s about 5,000 races a year). Only imagine mind, in the interests of this thought experiment. In addition to MotorMouth’s normal procedure for deleting stored data, you can revoke to your data via the Google security settings page at. YouTube's Terms of Service can be read here:, and by using the content supplied via the API, users are agreeing to be bound by the YouTube Terms of Service. MotorMouth uses Google’s YouTube API Services as a third party service, and when you access YouTube content and services through MotorMouth, you are agreeing to be subject to, and treated in accordance with, the Google Privacy Policy. You may remove your name from our email list by emailing – MotorMouth does not share, rent or sell your information to another company in ways other than disclosed in this privacy statement. MotorMouth may use your email address to send you newsletters with updates and news about MotorMouth. If the information is sent as part of a website evaluation, MotorMouth may also use the information to contact you about your comments. If you choose to share any personal information with MotorMouth, MotorMouth may store it and use it for internal research. If MotorMouth or a third party service provider requires a birth date to order a specific product or service, you will not be able to enter a birth date that indicates that you are less than 13 years old. MotorMouth does not knowingly collect information from children under 13 years old. Non-personally identifiable information (“NPII”) MotorMouth collects when you visit the Service may include: your IP address, your approximate geographic location, the operating system you are using, the device you are using.
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